Authoritarian regimes rarely abolish elections outright. Instead, they retain the appearance of democracy while eliminating its substance. In this prediction, opposition figures face mounting legal barriers, disqualifications, media blackouts, or criminal charges. Minor parties are permitted to run but are starved of resources or access, ensuring they pose no real threat to incumbents.
Election administration is fully captured, and outcomes are known in advance or controlled through turnout manipulation, vote suppression, or certification gamesmanship. State-aligned media portrays the election as a democratic triumph, despite minimal competition and widespread public skepticism.
This form of “managed democracy” is common in Russia, Turkey, Hungary, and Venezuela, where elections occur regularly but are designed to legitimize autocratic rule rather than facilitate change.
What to Watch For
- Disqualifications of major opposition candidates on technical or legal grounds
- Criminal investigations or smear campaigns against challengers
- Election commissions dominated by partisan or executive-aligned officials
- National debates or media events featuring only minor or token opposition
- Drastic funding disparities between the ruling party and challengers
- Government claims that low turnout or one-sided results reflect “unity,” not suppression