Authoritarian systems don’t appear overnight. They emerge gradually — through executive decisions, legal changes, cultural shifts, and weakened institutions. The Drift Watch prediction system exists to anticipate these patterns based on established precedents, known agendas, and historical analogs.
Our predictions are not intended as fear-mongering or speculation. Instead, they are grounded in:
- Public statements from political leaders and advisors
- Proposed legislation and policy documents
- Historical behaviors and campaign promises
- Think tank white papers and transition plans
- Patterns of erosion observed in other regimes
How It Works
Each prediction is structured using the following format:
- Title — A short label describing the predicted move or tactic
- Phase — The year or timeframe the action is expected (e.g., 2025–2028)
- Category — The area of governance affected (e.g., Media & Truth, Judiciary, Elections)
- Summary & Detail — A concise overview and extended rationale
- What to Watch For — Real-world signals like executive orders, bills, or statements
- Status — Labeled as predicted, in progress, confirmed, or prevented
Predictions are maintained and updated with real-world developments. When they come to pass, they are cross-referenced with a related Drift Event.
Why We Predict
Democratic erosion follows known playbooks — from Hungary to Venezuela, from the Weimar Republic to Russia. By identifying these patterns early, we provide the public and researchers tools to recognize what’s likely to come next.
This isn’t a claim of certainty — it’s a model of accountability and transparency. The underlying assumption:
If these events occur, they are not random — they are part of a larger pattern we’ve seen before.
Prediction Phases
Our roadmap is organized into yearly phases, each with a thematic focus:
- 2025 – Consolidation of Power: Gutting constraints on executive authority
- 2026 – Suppression of Opposition: Silencing critics and controlling narratives
- 2027 – Centralization of Authority: Collapsing institutional resistance and checks
- 2028 – Entrenchment of Power: Rewriting democratic systems to preserve control
Transparency Matters
Every prediction includes sources, evidence, and a status tracker so you can follow how close the U.S. is to crossing critical authoritarian thresholds.
We encourage readers to engage critically, explore the documentation, and compare these trends to the historical case studies we’ve collected.